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Predictability, Margins of Error, Quality of Life

Think about your daily commute - how accurately can you predict your time of arrival? To the minute? 5 minutes? Within an hour? And in what ways does being able to accurately predict where you will be when effect you and the people around you?

After graduating from college I lived for a number of years in Stoke Newington - a Williamsburgesque neighbourhood in north London made marginally more affordable by not being connected to the Underground network. Transport into central London meant getting on a bike or catching one of the iconic 73 Routemaster busses, with public transport putting the traveler at the mercy of road works and the then frequent IRA bomb scares*. A journey into town might take 35 minutes or then again an hour.

*For a number of years millions of UK citizens were affected IRA transport disruptions and in turn were forced to think about what their government was doing on their behalf outside the cosy confines of the ‘mainland’. In its own little way, changing the predictability of the daily commute bought the war in Northern Ireland home. Flyers in the US may well be experiences a similar pause for thought every time they take their shoes off going through TSA security.

Commuter travel in Tokyo is a very different story - public transport is both frequent and arrives on time (not that I'm unduly affected by it - its a city that is easy to get around on a bicycle). If a train is more than a couple of minutes late Japan Rail issues an apology and on arrival at the destination a queue may form at the station-master’s office to pick up an official late-note. Blaming public transport is not a viable excuse in Tokyo. Predictability encourages just-in-time behaviours and frees up time that can then be put to other uses. The flip side of this - not knowing the time of arrival puts the onus on travelers to maintain awareness of their current surroundings, keep abreast of the ongoing status of the transport as well as juggle destination related parameters - such as keeping colleagues or clients abreast of arrival times. If you have a job where being on time is a necessary component of functioning effectively then the ability to accurately predict where you will be when is also valued. Its a simple proposition - people tend to be willing to pay for stuff they value.

And yes the ability to successfully move millions of passengers, as in the photo of the Tokyo rush hour above, increases the flow of people to the point is literally and figuratively swept along by the crowd.

We are of course in the midst of significant shifts in the way we perceive time, location, and the world around us. Real time status updates are available from an ever wider variety of sources whether its knowing when a bus will arrive to parcel being delivered and yes, the mobile phone is playing an expanding role in supporting both micro-coordination and maintaining awareness of those things we, well, wish to maintain awareness of. Lateness is increasingly relative - when the people and things we coordinate with have sufficient awareness of your whereabouts they are more likely to mitigate the consequences of lateness by using the time for other valued pursuits. For some the concept of being late or early is a twentieth century notion.

But technology is far from neutral and affects us in different ways (the photo above is of a gender segregated queue for a bus in Tehran). What are the implications for being ‘late’ in business or social contexts? Or, bearing in mind societal stereotypes for way finding or map reading - what does it mean if as a woman you turn up late for a meeting compared to a man? Employers or employees? Brazilians or Germans? In the near near future your geo-location is just another parameter to decide to share with others.

Or at least that's the theory. Because many consumers won't fully appreciate what about their location is being shared and with whom - hidden behind deliberately opaque business models or poorly designed interfaces. Or quite simply they won't have a choice about whether to use the technology or not. Which is where the astute and empathic designer comes in - you have the power and with power comes responsibility.

Been playing around with Dopplr these past few days and whilst its too early to judge whether it will become a valued tool for the long distance traveler the signs are there: it requires minimal setup and ongoing maintenance to derive real value, and has a pleasantly neutral weather-forecast approach to informing members who is roughly where and when.

And why these photos from train stations around the world? The photo above is from Seoul Station taken during a study on Mobile TV early adopters [related essay]. Would-be passengers are relaxed and watching a sports event, trains and departure platforms have been announced well in advance of departure so they can switch their attention to other more leisurely activities. The photo below is of passengers in London's Waterloo Station, with only five minutes before the train is scheduled departure the platform has yet to be announced and fellow passengers spend their time intently staring at the screens.

Any (service) design students out there looking for a thesis project? Design a service utilizing mobile devices that helps passengers know where to be when. What would a station or an airport look like if everyone maintained an absolute awareness of their here-now, and there-next?

Writing from Heathrow | April 5, 2007 | Permalink